Will the Chandrayaan-2 moon landing be India’s biggest scientific achievement? - The Print, 6 September 2019

In today's Print, I write on India's Chandrayaan 2 mission in The Print's TalkPoint. What makes this mission historic is that India will be the first country to achieve a soft landing on the south pole of the moon. Choosing an unexplored area like the south pole of the moon for landing shows ISRO’s confidence.

For the full piece, click here.

Independent India has had a number of scientific achievements, including the Chandrayaan-1 mission, and it will be difficult to rank them because they are all equally impressive in the context of India’s development.

The Indian space programme itself has had impressive achievements like the successful launch of the SLV-3 in 1980. The recent anti-satellite (ASAT) test is also a significant achievement in the science and technology realm. India has had significant achievements in the nuclear realm too – the nuclear test in 1974 and the setting up of the fast-breeder test reactor. The Chandrayaan-2’s success will definitely earn the mission a place in this group of scientific and technological achievements.

Any landing on the lunar surface or indeed on any extra-terrestrial surface will be difficult, but landing on an unexplored area like the south pole of the moon much more so. It says a lot about the self-confidence of the ISRO and its leaders that they chose the south pole of the moon for their first attempt in extra-terrestrial soft landing. While we can all hope for Chandrayaan-2’s success, what has been achieved so far is remarkable for a country like India.

Chandrayaan 2 Moon Landing: The sign of a mature space mission - The Hindustan Times, 6 September 2019

In today's Hindustan Times, I write on India's Chandrayaan 2 mission. The fact that the Chandrayaan spacecraft will be landing on the south pole, a region that has been unexplored before makes it even more special. The fact that the exact spot for landing will be determined right before the landing makes it an extremely complex mission for India.

If all goes as planned, India’s Chandrayaan 2 will become the first Indian space craft to land on a non-terrestrial surface. Others such as the US, Soviet Union/ Russia and China have done human and rover landings on the Moon previously. India has previously undertaken orbital missions around the Moon and Mars, the Chandrayaan 1 and Mangalyaan respectively. The fact that the Chandrayaan spacecraft will be landing on the south pole, a region that has been unexplored before makes it even more special. Thefact that the exact spot for landing will be determined right before the landing makes it an extremely complex mission for India. Even China, which has built sophisticated space capabilities, made its first attempt to land on the near side of the Moon, although it did land on the far side of the lunar surface earlier this year.

For the full piece, click here.



While ISRO traditionally did not look at interplanetary or complex missions such as the Chandrayaan or Mangalyaan, this has become necessary as India’s space programme evolves into a more mature programme. This is also a reflection of the growing geopolitical competition that is now beginning to play out in space. The space competition that one saw during the Cold War had somewhat faded by the early 1980s, after both the US and Soviet Union demonstrated their own “firsts” in various accomplishments. In fact, the bragging rights also began to lose their value after a point of time because such endeavours were not seen as having much scientific or technological value-addition. But these have begun to make a comeback, except that the main actors are primarily in Asia with China leading in some of the endeavours, quickly followed by other players like India and Japan as well. There are also newer activities in outer space that is sparking the competition. For instance, space mining is beginning to gain a lot of interest in both the West and in Asia. Even the small city state, Luxembourg, is making significant investments in this regard. Asteroid mining, lunar mining and general advances in technology that aid in-situ resource utilization is pushing the countries to explore the practical value of space exploration.

There is also the security driven push to this competition. The US and Soviet Union were locked in major space competition for a couple of decades but the end of the Cold War had slowed down the pace to a large extent. The renewed space competition has China at the centre of it and Beijing has ambitions to catch up with both the US and Russia. But Beijing’s own actions have sparked major reactions in Asia and beyond. For instance, the first successful Chinese anti-satellite (ASAT) test in January 2007 sparked a new competition, pushing India to finally demonstrate its own capability earlier this year. This parallels other types of aggressive behaviour by China in its neighbourhood that has triggered new cooperation between those threatened by such actions and further competition with China. For instance, China’s behaviour has made the India-Japan strategic partnership a lot stronger in recent years, including in outer space. China’s actions have led to competition with the US, India and Japan, to a limited extent too. Because of the growing sophistication of China’s space programme, especially with regard to counter-space capabilities, other states have been driven to try and play catch-up with China. Of course, given the growing penetration of space for security and military purposes by all the major powers, India cannot afford to ignore these developments. China has marched ahead in many areas but India has to develop its own deterrent capabilities in space to remove some of the vulnerabilities that may persist in the bilateral and regional context. So, India will have to do a bit of catching-up with China for a while. While the Chandrayaan 2 mission may not have a direct social or economic benefit, demonstration of the growing sophistication of India’s space capabilities is much required for strengthening its credentials when it comes to debates about global governance of space. Moreover, highlighting India as a major space player makes it an attractive destination for launching satellites for a number of emerging players. All of these benefits and necessities makes India’s space ventures such as this worthwhile.

China extends terrestrial rivalries into orbit with new space race - The Nikkei Asian Review, 23 August 2019

On this Friday, I published a short essay on the emerging Asian space race in The Nikkei Asian Review. I believe that the emerging space dynamics especially in Asia will spur new competition as well as cooperation. For example, India and Japan unite over Beijing's moon landings and anti-satellite weapons and find new avenues to collaborate including in joint lunar missions in the future.

On September 7, India will attempt to land an unmanned mission on the moon. If it is successful, it will join China as the second Asian power that has landed on the lunar surface -- its efforts driven by China's achievements.

While such peaceful rivalry can spur countries to greater feats, unfortunately competition between Asian nations is now having more hostile effects: earlier in the year, India tested an antisatellite weapon, or ASAT, in space, trying to match a capability that China had demonstrated earlier.

These are two facets of the space race in Asia and it now looks like both will be determined by terrestrial power tussles more than anything else.

For the full essay, click here.



Asian powers have made significant advances in developing their capacities in outer space in the past couple of decades. China landed a rover on the far side of the moon earlier this year, an impressive feat that no other country has achieved, three years after landing on the near side.

While China has not officially commented on plans for a manned mission to the moon yet, many believe that will be the next step. In fact, Beijing has disclosed that its future lunar missions will set the foundation for a potential research base there.

Further, China's plans to construct and operate its own space station in low-earth orbit sometime around 2022 are impressive, but also add to space competition. By the time China's space station is established, it will probably be the only one operating. The current International Space Station is likely to wind up by 2024.

Similarly, India became the first Asian country to send an orbiter around Mars, called the Mangalyaan. ISRO, India's space agency, has an ambitious agenda, including a mission to study the sun in 2019-20, a second mission to Mars around 2022-23 and a Venus mission around 2023. Like China, India also plans manned space missions.

Japan, the other Asian power, has focused more on commercially viable projects but it has impressive achievements including a lunar orbiter mission in 2007 as well as the Hayabusa mission, the first time that a spacecraft landed on an asteroid and brought back samples.

While these achievements are commendable, there is a darker side; tense international relations in Asia are being felt in outer space.

In 2007, when China tested its ASAT weapon, it was the first such test since the 1980s. China's decision to demonstrate that capability meant that every power which had a reasonable level of dependence on outer space, not just military but also civilian, through such uses as GPS and telecommunication satellites, was now suddenly vulnerable.

Not surprisingly, the U.S. immediately followed with its own ASAT test the next year, and India began its own program. Now it appears that Japan may be on its way to developing an ASAT capability.

ASATs are only the visible element of this competition. There is also a less well known race to develop other capabilities that can damage the outer-space assets of potential adversaries. These include everything from cyber attacks to electronic warfare and spectrum interference, deliberate attempts to jam or otherwise impede radio signals.

The problem is of course a global one. But it is also specifically Asian because most of the key players are the rising powers in this region. Growing national wealth and technological capabilities have made these countries more dependent on space -- and hence more vulnerable.

The difficulty is exacerbated by the lack of international rules or norms. Existing treaties such as the Outer Space Treaty of 1967 have proved to be outdated and inadequate to meet these challenges. The problem is well recognized and there have been recent international efforts to address it, though these have gone nowhere.

The consequence is that deterrence appears to be the only real safeguard to protecting national assets in space. Simply put, the absence of strong rules and norms means countries must implicitly threaten retaliation by developing their aggressive capabilities.

This competition is spurring cooperation of a sort, however. China's enormous capacity means that no other Asian power can counter it alone. Just as this is encouraging new terrestrial alignments between India, Japan, Australia and others, it is also leading to cooperation in outer space by a number of countries, all whom have common concerns about China's capabilities and behavior in space.

Thus India and Japan, despite having highly nationalistic space programs, are cooperating more. In 2017, the two countries formally recognized the importance of deeper cooperation, and the space agencies of the two countries plan to conduct a joint lunar mission. More significantly, the two countries have just started a space security dialogue.

The first space race between the U.S. and the Soviet Union petered out without too much damage. With only two players in the game and a far simpler outer-space environment, management of that competition was relatively easy.

Asia may not be so lucky unless wiser counsel prevails. Asian powers have made significant advances and accomplished much they can be proud of, but unless they can either manage their terrestrial power politics or at least isolate outer space from those politics, it is likely that all of Asia could suffer.

How India is catching up with China with the launch of Chandrayaan-2 - Daily'O, 22 July 2019

On the day of India's Chandrayaan 2 mission, I published a short essay on the mission and what it means for India's own space aspirations as well as the larger strategic dynamics in the region and beyond.

India is launching Chandrayaan-2 on July 22. This represents a major milestone for India’s space programme. India has previously sent orbiters around the moon (Chandrayaan-1) and around mars (Mangalyaan) but this will be the first time that the country will be touching down on any non-terrestrial surface.

Landing on any such surface brings with it difficulties of a magnitude larger than the missions that India has conducted so far. This mission requires India to not only send an orbiter around the moon but also carry a separate vehicle that will touch down on the moon’s surface while the orbiter stays circling above. Adding to further complexities is the fact that India will be landing on an unmapped section of the lunar surface.

Indeed, the exact spot where the probe will land will be decided just before the landing actually takes place, which makes this an extremely difficult mission. It says something about the complexity of the mission that even China, whose space programme is somewhat more advanced than India’s, did it first lunar landing three years back and their first mission was a lot less complicated because it was on the near side of the moon. China, however, did land a second mission on the far side of the moon earlier this year. Other than China, only Soviet Union/Russia and the United States have done it.

For the full essay, click here.



This will be a major achievement for India; this is also a necessary step in the evolution of India’s space programme. After the initial space race between the United States and the Soviet Union, the pursuit of such accomplishments was considered unnecessary because outside of the bragging rights, these kinds of missions were not seen to have much scientific or any other value.

Even the bragging rights lost some of its value once the US landed Neil Armstrong on the moon, the 50th of that happy coincidence is also this weekend. But these pursuits have become important for a few reasons.

One is that the practical value of these missions has grown. There is increasing interest in space mining, with many countries now seeing that as potentially viable, and putting a lot of investments into exploring this possibility.

A tiny city state like Luxembourg has made significant investment into this. Advances in space technology as well as the growing need to explore the space has pushed these new ventures. While space mining has not commenced yet, India cannot afford to be left behind if this turns out to be something actually viable.

The other reason is the renewed space race. Though the US-Soviet space race petered out well before the end of the Cold War, there is a new space race that is accompanying China’s rise. China is keen on matching American and Russian accomplishments in space but some of its activities in space have also caused security concerns.

That is, much like, its behaviour in its neighbourhood. Its behaviour in outer space is also forcing others into greater competition. For example, when China conducted an anti-satellite (ASAT) test in 2007, that was the first such test in more than two decades. Thus, other states feel that they need to match or keep pace with China’s space activities.

China’s undeniable accomplishments in space also add to its status. This represents another incentive for the Indian space programme because India as a rising power also needs to keep pace with China. Indeed, the competition between China and others in Asia, particularly India, has been growing for the last decade. China is, of course, well ahead but India has scored some achievements including being the first Asian power to carry out a successful mars mission.

China had earlier partnered with Russia to send a mars-orbiting satellite called Yinghuo-1 but the Russian mission, Fobos-Grunt, in 2011 became a failure. On the other hand, China has a much better, well-rounded space programme. So, India will have to play catch-up for a while. Chandrayaan-2, if it is successfully accomplished, would represent a significant step in this regard. But the race will continue.

Here's some exclusive, behind-the-scenes footage of the mission's various components coming together - https://t.co/baOMowvWHaTell us what you think about it in the comments below. #Chandrayaan2 #GSLVMkIII #ISRO pic.twitter.com/Kguy33p2C1

— ISRO (@isro) July 14, 2019

Neither India nor China are presently thinking of replicating the American achievement in sending humans to the moon but that would appear to be the logical next step and the race will go on.